Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020
Identifieur interne : 000200 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000199; suivant : 000201Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020
Auteurs : Kenji Mizumoto [Japon, États-Unis] ; Gerardo Chowell [États-Unis]Source :
- Infectious Disease Modelling [ 2468-2152 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
An outbreak of COVID-19 developed aboard the Princess Cruises Ship during January–February 2020. Using mathematical modeling and time-series incidence data describing the trajectory of the outbreak among passengers and crew members, we characterize how the transmission potential varied over the course of the outbreak. Our estimate of the mean reproduction number in the confined setting reached values as high as ~11, which is higher than mean estimates reported from community-level transmission dynamics in China and Singapore (approximate range: 1.1–7). Our findings suggest that
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.02.003
PubMed: 32190785
PubMed Central: 7068636
Affiliations:
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xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Advanced Integrated Studies in Human Survivability, Kyoto University Yoshida-Nakaadachi-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Kyoto</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Hakubi Center for Advanced Research, Kyoto University, Yoshidahonmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, Japan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Hakubi Center for Advanced Research, Kyoto University, Yoshidahonmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université de Kyoto</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Kyoto</settlement><region type="prefecture">Région du Kansai</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff3">Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of 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xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Bethesda</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Infectious Disease Modelling</title><idno type="ISSN">2468-2152</idno><idno type="eISSN">2468-0427</idno><imprint><date when="2020">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>An outbreak of COVID-19 developed aboard the Princess Cruises Ship during January–February 2020. Using mathematical modeling and time-series incidence data describing the trajectory of the outbreak among passengers and crew members, we characterize how the transmission potential varied over the course of the outbreak. Our estimate of the mean reproduction number in the confined setting reached values as high as ~11, which is higher than mean estimates reported from community-level transmission dynamics in China and Singapore (approximate range: 1.1–7). Our findings suggest that <italic>R</italic><sub>t</sub> decreased substantially compared to values during the early phase after the Japanese government implemented an enhanced quarantine control. Most recent estimates of <italic>R</italic><sub>t</sub> reached values largely below the epidemic threshold, indicating that a secondary outbreak of the novel coronavirus was unlikely to occur aboard the Diamond Princess Ship.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Diekmann, O" uniqKey="Diekmann O">O. Diekmann</name></author><author><name sortKey="Heesterbeek, J A P" uniqKey="Heesterbeek J">J.A.P. Heesterbeek</name></author><author><name sortKey="Roberts, M G" uniqKey="Roberts M">M.G. Roberts</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Gan, N" uniqKey="Gan N">N. Gan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Thomas, N" uniqKey="Thomas N">N. Thomas</name></author><author><name sortKey="Culver, D" uniqKey="Culver D">D. 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Leung</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Japon</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Géorgie (États-Unis)</li><li>Région du Kansai</li></region><settlement><li>Kyoto</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université de Kyoto</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="Japon"><noRegion><name sortKey="Mizumoto, Kenji" sort="Mizumoto, Kenji" uniqKey="Mizumoto K" first="Kenji" last="Mizumoto">Kenji Mizumoto</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Mizumoto, Kenji" sort="Mizumoto, Kenji" uniqKey="Mizumoto K" first="Kenji" last="Mizumoto">Kenji Mizumoto</name></country><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Géorgie (États-Unis)"><name sortKey="Mizumoto, Kenji" sort="Mizumoto, Kenji" uniqKey="Mizumoto K" first="Kenji" last="Mizumoto">Kenji Mizumoto</name></region><name sortKey="Chowell, Gerardo" sort="Chowell, Gerardo" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="Gerardo" last="Chowell">Gerardo Chowell</name><name sortKey="Chowell, Gerardo" sort="Chowell, Gerardo" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="Gerardo" last="Chowell">Gerardo Chowell</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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